Thursday, March 6, 2008

NEXT: Money Panic?

NEXT: Money Panic?

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I'm deeply disturbed and concerned over the growing risk of a major market plummet another 1,000 to 3,000 points off the Dow Jones, and a South American type of currency crisis hitting the U.S. Dollar which would trigger a wave of Financial and Bank Bankruptcies.

Like many market analysts I've been hoping to see the Federal Reserves recent and prospect of new interest rate cuts that are coming -- ease the credit crisis and help U.S. equities recover their footing.

The problem comes down to the inability of Federal Reserve to stop housing prices from collapsing. The situation is so bad that the Federal Reserve just admitted that home equity has dipped below 50%. The first time in recorded history...

Homeowner Equity Is Lowest Since 1945
Thursday March 6, 12:50 pm ET

There's such chaos in the market place that companies like CitiGroup (C-NYSE) and American International Group, Inc. (AIG —NYSE) are being mentioned as out right bankruptcy candidates. Warnings that we're only half way through the needed write downs on sub-prime debt are now coming from several major players on Wall Street aren't easing my concerns.

Gold and platinum are down off their highs; oil seems to be holding close to an all time high of $105 even as the dollar tests new lows.

I'm bullish on both precious metals and energy in the long-term but wary of both a panic sell off (why I've recommend covered calls in recent days) and the very real chance of a dollar panic that triggers a mega gap up i.e. $2,500 gold and $150 oil over night. The danger of the debt crisis catapulting into a dollar panic cannot be ignored.

A few minutes ago I took a call from an associate who attended a "Debt Consolidation" convention in New Orleans. He confirmed what I've been hearing for several days...mortgages that are more than 12 weeks behind their payment schedules are now selling for 10 cents on the dollar.

Look when banks and financial institutions are selling distressed debt at 10 cents on the dollar you know — it's a serious crisis. If you're not holding precious metals and a dollar panic hits — don't come crying to me when Bread is $14 a loaf, gas is $18 a gallon and your credit cards are suspended. What I'm saying is two months ago the chances of this happening is increasing. Two months ago I would have put the risk at 10% - now I put the chances at a solid 20%. I hope I'm wrong. Even a 20% risk of this nightmare is more than I thought I would ever see in my lifetime.

Best Wishes,

James DiGeorgia

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