Sunday, January 30, 2011

U.S. Home Prices Keep Weakening as Eight Cities Reach New Lows in Nov

U.S. Home Prices Keep Weakening as Eight Cities Reach New Lows in November

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S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November (actually a 3 month average of September, October and November).

This includes prices for 20 individual cities and and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports NSA, I use the SA data.

From S&P: U.S. Home Prices Keep Weakening as Eight Cities Reach New Lows

Data through November 2010, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show a deceleration in the annual growth rates in 17 of the 20 MSAs and the 10- and 20-City Composites compared to what was reported for October 2010. The 10-City Composite was down 0.4% and the 20-City Composite fell 1.6% from their November 2009 levels. Home prices fell in 19 of 20 MSAs and both Composites in November from their October levels. In November, only four MSAs – Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington DC – showed year-over-year gains. The Composite indices remain above their spring 2009 lows; however, eight markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices peaked in 2006 and 2007, meaning that average home prices in those markets have fallen even further than the lows set in the spring of 2009.
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 31.0% from the peak, and down 0.4% in November(SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 30.9% from the peak, and down 0.5% in November (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is down 0.4% compared to November 2009. This is the first year-over-year decline since 2009.

The Composite 20 SA is down 1.6% compared to November 2009.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price Declines Prices increased (SA) in only 3 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in November seasonally adjusted.

Prices in Las Vegas are off 57.8% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 8.9% from the peak.

Prices are now falling - and falling just about everywhere. As S&P noted "eight markets – Atlanta, Charlotte, Detroit, Las Vegas, Miami, Portland (OR), Seattle and Tampa – hit their lowest levels since home prices peaked in 2006 and 2007". Both composite indices are still slightly above the post-bubble low.

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